Structural changes in the course of the worldwide industrial production and the outlook
Submitted by: Quest Trend Magazine
2013-09-25 00:01:43
The Quest Trend Magazine has analyzed the course of the worldwide industrial production in the last 30 years. Three structural changes became visible. They are forming the economic situation also these days.
(OPENPRESS) The industrial production of the USA, Japan, Germany and the European Union showed an altogether continuous growth in the 20 years from 1980 to 2000. Economic crises with a decline in industrial production occurred in an interval of ten years. Such decreases did not last longer than one year and by two years later the pre-crisis level of production was already again exceeded. An exception of it formed Japan that entered a long phase of stagnation already from 1990.
Around the year 2000 three structural changes in the course of the industrial production of the industrialized countries concerned have been arising.
First of all: The impact of the economic crisis 2008/2009 was unique within the last 30 years. In 2011 the industrial production (exception Germany) was again on the level of ten years ago, i.e. the year 2000.
Secondly: The crisis cycle, i.e. the duration between two crises, has been cut in half. It lasted about ten years since 1980. However, the economic crisis of 2008/2009 arose already five years after the industrial production had exceeded the pre-crisis level in 2004.
Thirdly: The duration of the crises has extended. During the twenty years from 1980 to 2000 it lasted one year and was overcome after one to two years. Since 2000 the crisis duration extended first to three to four years. And the crisis-laden decrease of the industrial production of 2008/2009 has not been overcome by today, i.e. in the fifth year.
A further article reports for the BRIC countries that industrial production in Russia and Brazil is stagnating on the pre-crisis level, India is treading water since 2011 and only China is showing a continuous dynamic growth.
Country analyzes of the USA, Great Britain and Japan show that a stagnant, partly even declining industrial production is getting along with a rising national debt. So national debt does not spur the industrial production, as often claimed.
The analysis gives rise to expectations of a stagnant and finally again declining course of the worldwide industrial production. That will prefer inexpensive, therefore cost-reduced products; the product differentiation will become less important. That will prefer machines, which are to produce in a unit cost price-optimized manner one or few products while highly flexible machines will be less demanded. That will have also far-reaching effects on the automation technology at the machines. Economically induced adaptions regarding the automation of machines will enter into the foreground opposite to technologically possible increases of performance.
